04:11
The big picture right now
The big picture right now is simple and clear: Hillary Clinton is in trouble. The states to focus on are Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10). If Clinton loses either of the larger states, she’s finished. She has a path to an 269-269 electoral tie if she loses Wisconsin – but she would have to win New Hampshire, which hasn’t been called yet.
And an electoral tie, after passing through a thicket of constitutional logistics, likely represents a win for Trump, owing to a strong Republican majority in the House of Representatives and retained Republican control of the senate, which looks very likely.
The three key states at this point all have gone reliably Democratic in presidential elections going back six elections. There are 31 such states – and none of them has yet broken the pattern tonight. But those states may be friendlier to Trump owing to his strength with the white, working-class voters that proliferate in the upper Midwest.
In the last hour, both Florida and Ohio were called for Trump, huge wins for him, and North Carolina appears to be running his way.
It’s a very tight race.